Just four years later, the overlooked quarterback led the New . Drew Brees NFL News & Stats. As Brees is close to catching Manning in some records thought I would put a comparison together between the two Qbs. Are these numbers consistent from year to year? And yet, New Orleans has started the season with at least four wins in its first six games for a fourth consecutive year, and Brees is seventh in the NFL in Total QBR.1 Brees has been trending in this direction for a while, but he is now pushing the absolute limits of how much a quarterback can accomplish without having the arm to back it up. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. Thanks to PFF Premium Stats 2.0 which is available with a PFF ELITE subscription we can see how quarterbacks perform in this critical area each season, but lets go a step deeper and rank those quarterbacks by PFF grade on deep passes, rather than by any production-based deep passing metric that is heavily influenced by the receiver at the catch point and the coverage the ball was thrown into. Do you also question all Film Room pieces as they only have 3-5 gifs per subject? However, his adjusted completion rate was one of the worst figures in all of football, and he had the highest rate of uncatchable, inaccurate passes on those targets. The pass is completed but the throw is inaccurate and forces the receiver to adjust. Only four quarterbacks had more big-time throws on deep shots than Mayfields 23, but those plays resulted in just seven touchdowns. The correlation between Kinsleys ACC% on throws 16+ yards downfield and Faheys ACC% on throws 21+ yards downfield is 0.76, so I think its reasonable to conclude they are onto something here even if their results dont line up exactly. TD. Birth State: Texas. There are 2-3 gif examples for every QB at his full website, including each QB's best downfield throw in his opinion: https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/, In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by Toner. There has been a lot of numerical analysis of many parts of football and especially of quarterbacking, but there has generally been very little dedicated to analyzing downfield passes. If you look at the situation rate splits, Brissett threw a relatively low proportion of his deep passes from clean pockets and into open windows, and threw a relatively high proportion of his deep passes under pressure and into tight windows. Wilson produced five more big-time throws (PFFs highest-graded throws that take into account ball location accuracy, etc.) (The other 5 were Carr, Cutler, Wentz, Wilson & Big Ben). Brissett hit 51.5 percent of his deep throws (21+ yards), 16.1 percent above the league average (4th highest overall), but too often those big plays were ruined by one of his receivers. Drew Brees was on the Chargers for five seasons. Burrow Brees Garoppolo Watson Herbert Cousins Murray Prescott Bridgewater Mahomes Pennington Ryan Warner Manning Rodgers Romo Rivers Wilson Carr Roethlisberger Brady Young 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 68.2 67.7 67.6 67.0 66.9 66.8 66.8 66.6 . Marcus Mariota was the 10th most efficient passer. My Wish 2007 Drew Brees - Devan Muller meets Drew Brees, Brees fires up LSU baseball with old Saints hype speech. Lock completed only three of those 11 pass attempts for 96 yards and a score, but he also had one picked off. Javascript is required for the selection of a player. Despite 662 dropbacks, Goff took a shot deep just 56 times (8.9%) and scored only one touchdown on those plays, despite having plenty to work with in terms of receiving talent. Its not like he just presented his results, he showed his methodology on how he got there. The Broncos on Monday picked up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option. For example, let's say a quarterback threw 75 passes downfield, and on 56 of those passes he had a clean pocket. Theyll also serve as a test for whether New Orleans can live up to its solid Super Bowl odds, despite deploying such a limited passing attack. Panama Jacksons True-ish Black Stories and Talking Freaknik, Im Not Gon Let You Play in My Damn Face. 571. Do you have a blog? Matthew Stafford has the totals but lacks in accuracy. By the end of it, they were all hurt and he was tossing passes to a former college quarterback and AAF star in Greg Ward. Still, he can say he ranked one spot higher in efficiency than Tom Brady. Tyrod Taylor, like Smith, wasn't spectacular in accuracy but took outrageously good care of the football despite playing with arguably the worst receiving corps in the league, poor pass protection, and the second-highest rate of tight windows in the league. Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6%), 4. The main question here is whether the pass was really off target or adjusted away from coverage. Only Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo (and Bridgewater if we move the sample size low enough) threw deep at a lower rate than Goff. Or write about sports? WWE Draft Night 1 Recap, Plus Trinity Fatu Debuts in Impact Wrestling, Howard Beck on How Much Longer the Warriors Can Keep Winning, LeBron James Vs. Stephen Curry, and the 76ers Without Joel Embiid. Making it under pressure or in a tight window adds one point to make it seven. That's six points already. He led the NFL in completion percentage, had a 27-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and helped earn the Saints a 13-3 record (8-3 in Breess starts) and the top seed in the NFC. If that doesnt put into context how we evaluate quarterbacks at draft time, nothing will. His scouting report says he struggles with the deep ball because he had a low completion percentage - its possible his receivers just stunk. Or 1257 yards for the first 60 attempts and 8.1 yards per attemp for the remaining 78. Theres not much to like about Haskins numbers from his rookie season except the mitigating circumstances that he was really without many viable passing targets, with only really rookie Terry McLaurin showing up reliably. Obviously, he would need to improve from here if he is to succeed in Denver. Drew Lock took just 11 deep shots over the season, so this number comes with a significant sample size caveat, but it felt more worthwhile than analyzing Joe Flaccos struggles. Fantasy Football. How many games does Drew Lock play? 2 is Dak Prescott. In 59 games, he threw for a total of 12,348 yards, 80 touchdowns and 53 interceptions. Drew Lock is 6-4 (193 cm) tall. For the Cincinnati Bengals, we ranked Andy Dalton rather than embarking on the pointless exercise of comparing Joe Burrows college stats to NFL equivalents (though if you wanted to see Burrows deep passing numbers, youd find them in PFFs 2020 NFL Draft Guide). If Tyrod wants to keep that job longer than people expect, he needs to up his efficiency on those deep targets. DeSean Jackson being missing especially crippled Wentzs ability to win deep down the field regularly, and though his passing itself was solid, the production the offense had on these attempts was lackluster at best. Ryan Tannehill of the Titans, for instance, doesnt go deep much more often than Brees, and he is also having a very good season. Then there's the fact that the very *foundation* of this analysis is made of potentially dubious subjective judgement calls . He played only two seasons with the Saints, but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. Also if you know that your receiver is very good at catching contested balls (Gronk or Megatron) throwing a long jump ball can be a very smart play. These include: For every edition of the Deep Ball Project, I have added in new stats to allow for more context. Michael Thomas, when healthy, is so good at running slant routes that the joke is he only runs slant routes. 11:36 AM, Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is having one of the most interesting quarterback seasons in recent memory. had a passer rating of 97.1 with 8,695 yards, 54 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in 29 games against the. Really enjoyed these numbers and the commentary. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the only quarterback in the league who can rival Jameis Winston for Y.O.L.O. Ultimately its just another part of Trubiskys game that has likely cost him the starting job in favor of Nick Foles, whose numbers last season may have been even worse than Trubiskys. He didnt have a single turnover-worthy play on 49 deep shots as a rookie thats impressive. Jimmy Garoppolo was the most accurate quarterback under pressure, making an accurate pass on every single pressure play on downfield attempts. Again, you can find an even larger amount of information on the actual Deep Ball Project at this link. The pass is dropped by the defense and the quarterback is at fault. On Baltimores side, it has recovered from a 14-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3 to win three straight, with QB Lamar Jackson playing more like himself in the recent win over Philadelphia though the Eagles late comeback against what is (on paper) one of the NFLs top defenses was concerning. But two games into the 2020 season, its clear that his arm is no longer with us. Looking ahead: Among Week 8s slate of games, weve got our eye on Sunday afternoons clash between the Steelers and Ravens. All 259 picks are in. Even with perfect and unbiased film charting, I don't think this can be tracked. Throws Ball Away Yes. John Kinsley is on Twitter @brickwallblitz. Copyright: ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. That year, Brees led the league in passing yards and touchdowns on deep throws, going 32 for 58 with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. Steph Curry Snuffed Out the Beam. In 2018, he went 1-for-8. The problem is that you can't even come close to evaluating the strength of the study with 2-3 gifs per QB. Plus Andrew Callahan on the Pats Draft, and a Preview of Celtics-Sixers With Raheem Palmer. Note: Kizer taking care of the ball better than expected on deep passes is particularly notable since he very obviously had no ability to take care of the ball in the red zone, when the field got shorter. Todd McShay breaks down the Eagles' draft that netted them Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith among others. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. Brees resents the implication that this development will prevent the Saints from contending. Cian and John are the only two writers I know that chart every QB's accuracy and publish their data like this. It seems like those three were more productive than Brisset even when Brisset was compensated for external factors. Now let's get to the accuracy percentages on every distance of deep passes. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. All rights reserved. according to Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, all-important race for the AFCs top overall seed. However, Rivers did also suffer from the second-most drops in the league, and accounting for those drops jumps his completion rate up five places on its own. ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Name: Drew Brees. Drew Brees has a great deep ball, but he is limited. Brown. Peyton Manning vs Drew Brees Statistical Comparison. Next is how accurate each quarterback fared in certain scenarios such as clean pockets, pressure, off-balance throws, into open windows, and into tight windows, while also looking at inaccurate completions and accurate incompletions. He also showed impressive touch on passes of 25 to 29 yards and on passes of 35 to 39 yards, ranking in the top five in both ranges. How much can Joel Embiid give the Sixers against the Celtics? Henderson played with the Saints until 2012, and caught six 50-plus yard touchdowns from Brees. Payton also drew up a variety of play-action bombs, often with Brees rolling out, that gave Henderson and others time to get deep and Brees plenty of space to step into his throws. From a Colts fan perspective, I don't remember their being complaints about Brissett's deep ball. Cian Fahey, who charted every single pass every QB threw and used to write for FO, had this to say about Brissett: "Jacoby Brissett was the best deep sideline passer in the NFL in 2017, second best to the left sideline and fourth best to the right sideline. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Efficiency Score uses a points system that rewards accurate passes and docks points away for inaccurate completions (plays where a pass is inaccurate but caught thanks to a receiver who bails out the quarterback), interceptions where the quarterback is at fault, and dropped interceptions where the quarterback is at fault. His arm strength has steadily declined in recent seasons, and last year, his passes traveled shorter distances than any other NFL quarterback, with an intended air yards per target of 6.4 yards. . Similar to how most extreme short passers struggle to post efficient numbers, the other offenses whose receiving corps were led by running backs tended to grade as mediocre, according to schedule-adjusted expected points added (EPA). In his defense, it wasnt all Goff, as the Rams had one of the worst offensive lines in football, and Goff often just didnt have the time to let deep plays develop. There were a number of times he threw 100 MPH fastball to back standing 10 yards away. So you're saying that accurate measurement of QB performance isn't possible then, because the QB can't be credited or criticized for making the smart play? Every passing list Lamar Jackson finds himself in the middle of this offseason is a massive win for both him and the Ravens, given where he started from as a passer. Not only that, he was also phenomenal. An "inaccurate" throw might be the QB prioritizing a safe throw instead of an "accurate" throw that's more likely to be intercepted as well as completed. Joe Burrow (68.2%), 2. [Editors note:Subscribe to PFF ELITE todayto gain access to PFFsPremium Statsand newPlayer Grades experiencein addition to the2020 NFL Draft Guide,2020 Fantasy Rookie Scouting Report,PFF Greenline, all of PFFs premium article content and more.]. Explore Properties. To be fair, these examples happened with QBs with either small sample sizes (where a few more/less accurate passes would really shift the %), or a big difference in attempts. But if thats not good enough, you can also compare his results with others. On the other end, Andy Dalton ranked 18 spots better for Cian (7.2% better). After Henderson, the team drafted Kenny Stills, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. He was also fourth on play-action, only behind Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning. The big shock comes from the different situations faced by Texans quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. I only skimmed a few results from a site search, but all the same. And using a fanboard of evidence of anything is silly. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? Jacoby Brissett has never been an aggressive quarterback, but lack of aggression combined with inefficiency when you actually take the shot is a first-class ticket to a backup role. but Brissett's ranking is very difficult to accept, especially considering: According to ESPN, he completed 10 of 35 attempts over 20 yards in 2017. No passer could match the 13 touchdowns Mahomes managed on deep targets they were two more than the next closest quarterback. (Matt Ryan is proof that quarterbacks can throw interceptions that aren't on them.). Or write about sports? ", http://presnapreads.com/2018/03/25/quarterback-tiers-and-rankings-based-exclusively-on-the-2017-season/. Who has the most career 150 rushing yard games? This is the fourth edition of the Deep Ball Project, which of course means I have been doing this since 2014. We are gathered here today to remember Drew Breess arm. Jeff Legwold explains why the Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy's rookie option. Let's consider that the Eagles gave Nick Foles the second-highest rate of play-action when Wentz was lost for the season. By QBR, Brees is doing better this year than in 2019 another very short-passing season by historical standards despite throwing deep even less (and despite not having Thomas, who set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season last year). Henderson, who was already in New Orleans when Brees arrived, was the first. I applaud the time you put into this, and I am not suggesting my few minutes of research trump your stats, but claiming Brissett is the most accurate deep passer in the NFL is a tough row to hoe. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. And after a long stretch of finishing last or second to last in critical defensive stats, New Orleanss defense is actually capable of winning the team games now. Coming in at No. Learning How to Successfully Predict the Top NFL Prospects. A highlight reel of only his best deep passes would be as good as that from any quarterback in the league, but he missed on more than he should have given his ability to make those passes. The success levels for other short-tossing quarterbacks have varied. Every throw that reaches at least 16 yards in the air is constituted as a downfield pass. Did he peak in October or so and then decline? Though he faced more pressure downfield, Foles was still able to get friendly reads because of the variety of play-calling that Doug Pederson provided. The Day Kansas City Drafted Patrick Mahomes, Aidan O'Connell, Tanner McKee, and the Day 3 QBs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Highlights Deep Class of WRs, Most Undervalued Players in a 2023 Fantasy Football Draft, Colts Take Will Levis in Latest Mock Draft. (So does Taysom Hill.) Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com Players Injuries Transactions Health & Safety NFL+ X NFL+ Draft Room Rhett Lewis is joined by Marc Ross, David Shaw and Cynthia Frelund to predict picks. The downside was that only Philip Rivers had more negative plays than Mayfield on these passes, as the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner ended the season with nine turnover-worthy plays and seven interceptions. While Winston went deep on 15.8% of his dropbacks (fourth), Fitzpatrick was all the way down in 16th at 12.9%. And yet, the Saints are defying all that this season, with Brees passing well and the New Orleans offense once again ranking among the top 10 in EPA, as it has every season since Brees arrived in 2006. Kizer also had 18 accurate incompletions, and also had a high efficiency score because he took care of the ball much better than expected. Thats especially concerning given that he had some pretty legit receivers to play with. the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history, NFL Power Rankings: The War of Attrition Leaves Some Teams Scrambling. Jacoby Brissett's accuracy was below average to open windows, but he was easily the best tight-window passer downfield, with an incredible 65.9 percent of his passes to tight windows being accurate. This year, only three of Brees's 68 attempts have been deeper than 20 yards, a rate of 4.4 percent. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by Hoodie_Sleeves. Only Wilson and Watson had more big-time throws on deep throws than Rodgers did last season, and he did that with only one receiver, Davante Adams, who truly has 100% of Rodgers trust. for example. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. On 138 attempts. He led the league in completion rate on these passes by over 10 percentage points and in adjusted completion rate by 20 percentage points. But you can't isolate a QB from his surroundings. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. How many passing yards does Drew Lock have? In 2017, he was 7-for-15 on such throws. Justin Herbert (66.9%), All rights reserved. Jimmy Garoppolo had the highest percentage of clean pockets. You'd think those would more closely line up if every play was looked at. Birth Country: United States. Not only he has better rate than Brisset, he gained an additional 550 yards in just 24 more attempts. This is consistent with research that shows passes to running backs as being less valuable than those directed to other positions. Elos spread: Baltimore -3. Well, the further the accurate pass is thrown, the more points will be handed out. . Stafford passed for six deep touchdowns but had 16 big-time throws, and he perhaps deserved a little more when it came to putting points on the board from his passes. Birth City: Austin. Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest, you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling. The Ravens are declining linebacker Patrick Queen's fifth-year option, a source told ESPN. He covers the Tennessee Titans for Music City Miracles on SB Nation, and also writes for the Minnesota Vikings website Purple PTSD. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. Now Hell Face LeBron and the Lakers. Deshaun Watson (67.0%), 5. For what it's worth, though, he handled the change to a vertical offense really well. What Will Happen? Get the latest news, stats, videos, highlights and more about quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. The San Francisco quarterback also benefitted from Kyle Shanahans scheme regularly presenting him with wide-open targets downfield, but to his credit, he hit them when called upon. Allen was awful when it came to deep passing, but Bridgewater much like Carr was actually good at it when he convinced himself to actually throw deep. 2. Starter could be replaced for performance reasons. In this clip from the Saints first game of the year, Brees has two open receivers downfield. The pass is intercepted and the quarterback is at fault. energy, but Fitzpatrick was actually uncharacteristically conservative last year. Kizer had six red zone interceptions, twice as many as any other quarterback, even though he had only 43 red zone attempts, 28th in the league. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by ramirez. For example, Brisett goes from 22/60 to 39/60 because he gets credited with 19 accurate incompletions. These subjective to objective metrics never seem very accurate to me. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Washington needs Haskins to take a step forward in this area, just as the Giants do with Daniel Jones. than any other quarterback last year, and they came at the cost of just one turnover-worthy play. Although if you give the QB credit for throwing up jump balls to a very good receiver, you're essentially crediting the QB for having a good receiver when the whole point is trying to isolate the QB from his surroundings. @Neil_Paine, NFL (976 posts) NAME SEASON TM GP PCT CMP ATT YDS AVG YDS/G TD TD% INT INT% SCK SCKY RATE; Drew Brees: 2001: SD. The aggressiveness of a QB could also affect this perception quite a bit. New Orleans Saints (52) Best Known For: NFL quarterback Drew Brees . Clutch Yes. Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. Do they have predictive value? Do you have a sports website? (The All-Pro has been injured since Week 1.). Get complete game-by-game stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. How big of a role did Sean Payton play in Drew . Breess arm carried this team for so long; now its time for the aging great to get a boost. Cousins overall deep numbers werent spectacular, but when he hit on a shot it tended to be an absolute dime. Right - this gets into a bit of trying to decide where the QB was trying to throw the ball - which seems like an exercise in futility. Drew Lock played 24 games over his career. So here's how each area of the field is handled in that regard: One additional point will be handed out if the accurate pass was delivered under pressure or in a tight window (where the quarterback has much less margin for error). Career Stats: Brees: 249 Games, 66.9% completion, 70,445 yards, 488TDs, 228 Ints, QB Rating 96.7. During Sunday night's highlights show, Brees did a breakdown of the Packers-Saints highlights and marveled at the big arm that new Saints QB Jameis Winston showed off during the 38-3 win over the. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Kyler a Trade Chip? Only three quarterbacks lost more completions and only three quarterbacks lost more yards. (So does Taysom Hill.). ESPN profiled Breess offseason attempts to maintain his arm strength back in August. in his play as Winston has, Jameis led the NFL in yardage (1,351), completions (40) and attempts (99) on deep shots but was fourth in big-time throws, 12th in both completion rate and adjusted completion rate and 15th in passer rating, all despite having one of the best receiving pairings in football. On 84 attempts. Are Drew Breess Days As a Deep-Ball Artist Behind Him? I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws. How tall is Drew Lock? Defends its Crown, 2022 Failed Completions: Justin Herbert Aims for the Record, XFL Week 6 Preview: Houston and D.C. in a Prime-Time Special, I do not want to be trollish or dismissive, Re: I do not want to be trollish or dismissive, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews), 2017-18 Deep Ball Project: Throws of 16-Plus Air Yards, 2017-18 Deep Ball Project: Accuracy Percentage by Distance (Ranking in Parentheses), 2017-18 Deep Ball Project: Accuracy Percentage by Scenarios (Ranking in Parentheses), 2017-18 Deep Ball Project: Situational Rate Splits (Ranking in Parentheses). It would be great if the author would reveal which specific throws by quarterbacks were graded as accurate incompletions, or inaccurate completions. Can Phoenix generate enough easy offense to keep up with Denver? We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. . Does Brees still have this string to his bow? If we scale it by 39/22 that is 1257 yards. Accuracy percentage takes a look at whether the pass was or wasn't accurate, regardless whether it was caught. Carson Wentz had the highest percentage of open-window passes to throw to (51.8 percent), yet he was third-to-last in accuracy to those areas (48.8 percent). Below are Drew Brees's stats with the Chargers from 2001-2005: *2004 was the season Brees was selected to the Pro Bowl and won Comeback Player of the Year . Please note that the rankings for clean pockets, pressure, play-action, off-balance, open windows, and tight windows DO NOT REFLECT ACCURACY FOR THIS CHART, just how frequently each quarterback was in each scenario.
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